Posted October 11, 2013

The Playbook: Previewing Saints-Pats, Packers-Ravens, more Week 6 games

AFC East, AFC North, AFC South, AFC West, NFC East, NFC North, NFC South, NFC West, The Playbook

Undercards

Oakland (2-3) at Kansas City (5-0) — 1 p.m. ET, CBS: The matchup of mobile Raiders QB Terrelle Pryor versus the Chiefs’ ferocious pass rush could be among the most entertaining of Week 6.  Kansas City currently leads the league with 21 sacks, but Pryor will be a test. The Chiefs did sack Michael Vick six times, so the evidence is there to suggest that an athletic QB will not be a problem. Can the Raiders, with just six turnovers all year, continue to protect the football? – CB

Cincinnati (3-2) at Buffalo (2-3) — 1 p.m. ET, CBS: The Bengals haven’t allowed a 300-yard passer in 19 games, and snapped Tom Brady’s touchdown streak last Sunday. Into this fray steps undrafted fourth-year quarterback Thad Lewis, subbing for the injured EJ Manuel. Another problem for the Bills: Cincinnati has one of the league’s most efficient offensive lines, allowing just four sacks and clearing the way in the run game. — DF

St. Louis (2-3) at Houston (2-3) — 1 p.m. ET, FOX: The Texans’ season is on the brink after three straight losses — and with Matt Schaub in the midst of an implosion. St. Louis, record-wise, is no better off at a matching 2-3, but its win over Jacksonville last Sunday at least steadied the ship. The team that falls short here might be faced with some heavy questions, perhaps starting with what to do at the quarterback position.   – CB

Detroit (3-2) at Cleveland (3-2) — 1 p.m. ET, FOX: Calvin Johnson is a game-time decision for this one. He missed last week’s game against the Packers, and Detroit’s offense had few answers in a 22-9 loss. There may be additional problems against the Browns — Ray Horton’s defense has been as good as expected. Detroit’s best hope is to have its defense do to Browns quarterback Brandon Weeden what other teams have already successfully done — pressure him, force him into abrupt reads and await the inevitable meltdown. – DF

Arizona (3-2) at San Francisco (3-2) — 4:25 p.m. ET, FOX: After a 1-2 start, the 49ers have set things right, outscoring the Rams and Texans 69-14 over their recent two-game winning streak. The key to San Francisco’s turnaround has been a return to their power run game, which has helped an unexpectedly shaky offensive line and given relief to Colin Kaepernick. Arizona is also on a two-game winning streak, though, and the Cards have one of the better run-stopping lines in the league. This may be Kaepernick’s game to win or lose. – DF

Washington (1-3) at Dallas (2-3) — 8:30 p.m. ET, NBC: Arguably the two biggest wins Washington secured in 2012 came against Dallas. Robert Griffin III torched the Cowboys on Thanksgiving Day to move his team to 5-6, then the Redskins clinched the division with a Week 17 victory over the ‘Boys. The stakes are relatively high again here: A Redskins win could leapfrog them into first place in the NFC East. Dallas, meanwhile, would like to erase the memory of last week’s deflating loss to Denver. – CB

Indianapolis (4-1) at San Diego (2-3) — 8:30 p.m. ET, ESPN: If the Broncos and Saints have the league’s hottest offenses, the Colts can’t be far behind. Pep Hamilton has mixed power running with a deep passing game in ways that are bedeviling opponents, and this week they face a Chargers defense that ranks dead last in Football Outsiders’ opponent-adjusted metrics. Then again, the surprising Colts secondary will be tested by Philip Rivers, who has been totally reborn under new head coach Mike McCoy; Rivers is playing as well as any quarterback not named Peyton Manning. – DF

Only For The Faithful

Pittsburgh (0-4) at NY Jets (3-2) — 1 p.m. ET, CBS: The Jets have been talking this week about not overlooking the Steelers, in case you need evidence of how far Pittsburgh has fallen. Ben Roethlisberger might see the Jets’ D-line in his nightmares — Muhammad Wilkerson, Sheldon Richardson and Co. swarmed Matt Ryan in Week 5.  – CB

Carolina (1-3) at Minnesota (1-3) — 1 p.m. ET, FOX – Christian Ponder’s ribs are still a problem, which means Matt Cassel will likely start against Carolina’s bullying front seven. The Josh Freeman era may begin sooner than we thought. – DF

FARRAR: Did the Vikings finally get their man in Josh Freeman?

Philadelphia (2-3) at Tampa Bay (0-4) — 1 p.m. ET, FOX: Will it be Michael Vick or Nick Foles at quarterback for the Eagles? Will it matter against an 0-4 Tampa Bay team that boasts the league’s second-worst offense? Vick’s ailing hamstring could keep him out of this one, but Nick Foles stepped in last week and torched the Giants.  – CB

Smarter Stats

(Unless otherwise indicated, all stats come from our friends at Pro Football Focus).

• Remember when we told you in the Titans-Seahawks preview how underrated Alterraun Verner is? Check this out: The Titans’ cornerback has been targeted 28 times this season. He’s allowed nine catches for 159 yards, which means that you can beat him deep, but he has yet to allow a touchdown. Verner has four picks on those 28 targets, and opposing quarterbacks have managed a preposterous 12.9 quarterback rating when targeting Verner — to put that in perspective, Aqib Talib of the Patriots has the second-best QB rating against at 30.8. If he keeps it up at anything near this level, Verner should be talked about as a Defensive Player of the Year candidate when the season is done.

• The fourth-best slot cornerback in the league through five weeks? Bills rookie Nickell Robey, who’s allowed eight catches, 59 yards and no touchdowns on 19 targets. Appropriate for a guy playing in nickel situations, yes. Of course, the undrafted free agent has his one interception this year on the outside.

• Is it time to put New Orleans’ Cameron Jordan in the discussion with J.J. Watt and the New York Jets’ Muhammad Wilkerson among the league’s best pass-rushing 3-4 ends? The numbers certainly back it up. Jordan, Wilkerson and Watt all have four sacks, but Jordan actually has one more total pressure than Watt, and 12 more than Wilkerson — five quarterback hits and 19 hurries to Watt’s eight and 15 and Wilkerson’s three and nine. No player has benefitted more from Rob Ryan’s schemes.

• The Vikings signed end Brian Robison to a four-year, $28 million extension this week, and he’s certainly deserving of it. Only Cincinnati’s Carlos Dunlap and New England’s Rob Ninkovich have more pass-rush snaps as 3-4 ends than Robison’s 169, and Robison’s 24 total pressures rank fourth in the league at his position.

• We often castigate receivers for drops, and justifiably so, but let’s take a moment to give Baltimore’s Torrey Smith a round of applause. Joe Flacco’s main deep threat hasn’t dropped a single pass all season on 49 targets, which is the fifth-highest total in the league. Smith also leads the NFL with 18 targets of 20 yards or more.

• Whatever ails the Redskins’ offense this year, it’s certain that pass protection on Robert Griffin III’s blind side is on lock. Trent Williams has allowed no sacks and just four total pressures (two hits and two hurries) while playing 100 percent of his team’s dropback snaps. – DF

Two-Minute Drill

Matchup to Watch: Jimmy Graham vs. New England’s secondary.

The Patriots have had little luck stymieing the league’s better tight ends of late — Tony Gonzalez posted 12 catches for 149 yards and two TDs against them in Week 4, while Jermaine Gresham and Tyler Eifert enjoyed a solid afternoon in Week 5.

New England figures to vary its coverage looks on Graham, with No. 1 cornerback Aqib Talib even in the mix as a possible counter. Shutting out Graham is an impossible task, even for the league’s best defenses. But keeping him in check, so Drew Brees is forced to utilize his receivers and running backs, is a must for the Patriots if they want to pull off a victory.

This Week’s Sleeper: Jerome Simpson, WR, Vikings.

Even though Josh Freeman now resides in Minnesota and Christian Ponder may be able to suit up, the Vikings appear as if they’ll roll with Matt Cassel at QB against the Panthers. And that’s good news for Simpson, who had seven catches (and 11 targets) for 124 yards in Minnesota’s Cassel-led London win in Week 4. Simpson already has 342 yards receiving this year, topping his total from 2012 (274).

Pressure’s On …: Matthew Stafford, QB, Lions.

The Lions are paying Stafford like an elite quarterback, and occasionally he’ll fit the bill. In two games sans a leading offensive weapon, though, Stafford has slumped — first in a loss to Arizona with Reggie Bush on the bench in the second half, then last week at Green Bay with Calvin Johnson out of the lineup. Johnson’s questionable for Sunday’s matchup in Cleveland. So for the Lions to improve to 4-2, they’ll need their high-priced QB to deliver.

Rookie Spotlight: Matt Elam, S, Ravens.

One key change for the Ravens defense since it was shredded by Peyton Manning in Week 1: Elam, in place of Michael Huff.

“I would assess that he’s the starting safety right now, and he’s doing a good job,” Ravens coach John Harbaugh said this week of Elam. “They’ve been testing him that way, and he’s held up pretty darn well.”

Will Harbaugh be singing the same tune after Elam faces Aaron Rodgers and the Packers’ prolific attack on Sunday? – CB

Must-Win Watch

• Dallas Cowboys: Coming off of last week’s heartbreaking setback, the last thing the Cowboys need is to turn around and drop another one to the Redskins. Putting another win on the board — and doing so while keeping Washington struggling — would do wonders in Big D. – CB

• Green Bay Packers: The Packers travel to Baltimore at 2-2, looking up at the Bears and Lions in the NFC North. They’ll be without premier pass-rusher Clay Matthews for at least a month, and Joe Flacco can tear a defense to bits if he’s not pressured. – DF


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13 comments
WHO*IS*ESPN
WHO*IS*ESPN

Based on the crappy Pats WR's, BAMA would have and edge on defense.  pats "O" stinks

TheSteelers
TheSteelers

Steelers start a 10-2 run starting tomorrow!

You're jealous?

A1
A1

Saints 45 Patriots 10  It will be gut wrenching for us Pats fans, but it is the reality of this season. 

dennis
dennis

Drew Brees  highest QB ratings have come against New England Patriots. It will be fun to watch him work his magic again this sunday. Saints 34 - Patriots 17

BernardMcDaniels
BernardMcDaniels

I am not surprised the media did not cover the Ravens and Green match up the way they always do mainly with the Ravens, The Packers are not looking too good ,they are not winning the way the media expected to, so GreenBay gets the cold shoulder, but they still pick GREENBAY.  What do Baltimore have to do to get RESPECT in this here NFL and the fans from elsewhere? All we do is win  I thought winning was the corner stone of Greatness , We are a great team with great fans with great players but still never get RESPECT. We win the Superbowl no respect . we are playing way better then GreenBay they cannot and will not beat us in our house.Look at our record? It speaks for itself. anything we do is not good for ANYBODY MAINLY THE media. We are tired fans listing to people talk real bad about us mainly going back to the RayLewis error that is not right. there are teams we do noy like we make our opinions that is fair but to hate the Ravens ?you are wrong it hurts me to think the world of sports fans hate us I am sorry I have written this long but I am hurting so you know All Ravens are hurting. in closing Thanks for hearing my comments to you  Ravens fans (Ravens on one ) RAVENS

Rick in Huahin!
Rick in Huahin!

In all of sports, not one mention of Frontlines TV show? Thats plain embarrassing!

Sports101
Sports101

Can you say Gronk!   Again,,,,,,,,Again,,,,,,,,,  

TheSteelers
TheSteelers

@A1 

Some fan you are, completely ignoring the Patriots' home record. Patriots always have a chance at home. If the game was in NO it might end that way, however.

mtoews
mtoews

@BernardMcDaniels 3-2 is not 5-0 so umm you don't win all the time.  When you lose its way ugly beat downs or teams you should have beaten.  When you win its squeakers over teams you should crush .  No respect?  None earned.  Superbowl? Your QB gets the MVP and you sign him to elite dollars and you way overpaid.. so If you want people to talk about your team maybe you should be ready for the laughter.

WHO*IS*ESPN
WHO*IS*ESPN

@TheSteelers @A1 You think the pats would score at least SEVEN on Cincy didn't you? Home record can go bye bye today with the sh*tty receivers Tom has and Gronk should just get cut as he is of no value